Analysis of Energy Stock Returns Using Stochastic Oscillator and Fibonacci Retracement

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to compare the stock returns of energy sector companies listed in the LQ45 index using two technical indicators, namely the Stochastic Oscillator (SO) and Fibonacci Retracement, to find which one is more effective for short-term trading analysis.

Methodology/approach: The research used a quantitative descriptive-comparative approach focusing on four energy stocks—ADRO, MEDC, PGAS, and PGEO—during the period from January 2024 to February 2025. Stock price data were obtained from the TradingView platform. Data analysis included normality testing and hypothesis testing using the Kruskal-Wallis method with Microsoft Excel and SPSS software.

Results/findings: The results show that there are significant differences in stock returns when using the two indicators. The Stochastic Oscillator provided the highest average return, indicating that it is more effective in identifying short-term trading opportunities compared to Fibonacci Retracement.

Conclusions: The study concludes that momentum-based indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator are more suitable for short-term investment strategies, especially in volatile market conditions within the energy sector.

Limitations: This study only focused on four energy sector stocks and covered a limited time period, which may not fully represent the entire sector or long-term performance.

Contribution: The findings contribute to the field of technical analysis and investment decision-making by helping traders and investors identify which indicators are more effective for short-term trading in the energy sector.